Alex Black

The Shohei sweepstakes have begun, with everyone obviously interested, but who will actually sign the big fella? When he was first buzzed about in the NPB (Japan's MLB), he expressed his desire to both hit and pitch, and to be on the West Coast so he is closer to Japan. Since the universal DH (Designated hitter) wasn't in effect in the National League at that time, Shohei signed with the Los Angeles Angels of the American League West division.

Now that all teams have the universal DH, the entire West Coast will throw offers his way hoping to sway the pricey once in a lifetime player to their side.

Only taking into account the West Coast as I doubt he will sign anywhere not there, his options are more limited than you'd think. Being a once in a lifetime event, his price tag will also stand alone as the highest paying contract in history. This means that you're not only getting someone now, but will be placed into a 10+year commitment to lower the annual salary.

These are the current highest paying contracts of all time:

Mike Trout (12years, 426.5mil, 2019-30) Mookie Betts (12years, 365mil, 2021-32) Aaron Judge (9years, 360mil, 2023-31) Manny Machado (10 years, 300mil, 2019-23, opted out of his final 5 years in 2023 to sign a new 11years, 350mil, 2023-33) Francisco Lindor (10years, 341mil, 2022-31) Fernando Tatis Jr. (14years, 340mil 2021-34) Bryce Harper (13years, 330mil, 2019-31)

Not only is this an insane amount of money to pay, but to cheap out now by offering long term deals to lower you're annual commitment, you're raising the chance of holding onto dead money in the last half of their contracts when they're all nearing 40 years old. Not to mention these players only do 1 side of the game, not both.

Shohei, being both a pitcher and a designated hitter, will top all of these contracts, but working twice as much will deteriorate him faster. That being said, a lot teams would be willing to break the bank for him.

The most likely is the big spending LA Dodgers, who after the departure of Julio Urias (presumably for good after his second domestic abuse allegations), longtime Dodger Clayton Kershaw's decline, and too many young, unproven pitching prospects, Shohei would be a perfect spot, and their payroll would allow it. They owe Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman over 20+mil for 2024, but the rest of their roster is fairly cheap for a big market team.

The second most likely spot in my opinion would be the San Francisco Giants, another West Coast team in Cali, but the Giants have something to prove. Last offseason they missed out on big stars like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, as well as Bryce Harper a few years previous. Seen as second fiddle to the longtime success of the Dodgers, the Giants have something to prove after missing the postseason. Their payroll is around the same as the Dodgers, but the Giants are in need of the “Guy”, and they will send Ohtani a hefty offer to get one.

My third and final real destination for Shohei would be Seattle. This years All-Star Game was hosted in Seattle, and the fans made it known they want Shohei. He often trains in the offseason in the pacific northwest, Seattle needs offensive numbers and postseason success, and Shohei can deliver. Although not seen as a premier destination for free agents, as the last big signing Seattle made in free agency was Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who has not performed nearly as well as they wanted and missed most of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. After their top paid players, Julio Rodriguez (12years, 209.3mil, 2023-34), Luis Castillo (5years, 108mil, 2023-28), Robbie Ray (5years, 115mil, 2022-26), and Marco Gonzales (4years, 30mil, 2020-25), their financial commitment drops off significantly. Considering that only one of their top 10 prospects is a pitcher (who performed poorly this year at the major league level), Shohei's offensive power + his pitching ability should hold them down for a while.

WISHFUL THINKING:

Toronto, Minnesota (please)

by Your friend and comrade