Alex Black

They were only 2 outs away...

Heartbreak hit Toronto this postseason, with the Blue Jays being 2 outs away from a World Series victory. They would eventually fall short in 11 innings vs the Dodgers. Like last year I am going to attempt to predict and advocate for the free agency signings I think Toronto should make for the 2026 season. I only got Jeff Hoffman's prediction correct, and look how that ended up... Last year the payroll was at around 250 million. With a deep postseason run, we can assume that the organization will be more than happy to spend again to strengthen some weaker spots on the roster.

I will be using the same websites I used last year, but I will provide a quick summary of what they are.

SPOTRAC: evaluates player contracts and estimates player market value FANGRAPHS: provides in depth breakdowns of teams and their rosters, also gives projections and evaluations.

I also used Options and WAR last year, so to explain those briefly: a Player Option is a hypothetical extra year the player can opt in or out of, and a Team Option is the inverse, where the team can opt in or out of an extra year.

WAR (Wins above replacement) is a general rating of a players performance. 1 WAR is replacement level, and anything above or below is how comparable they are to a replacement level player (low cost, low output). Like last year, there will be a “cheap, average, and lucrative” option for each, unless there is no need to improve a position.

I also want to explain the Rule 5 draft, as I mention that a few times as well. If a player spends 4-5 season in the minor leagues after being drafted and has yet to debut, they are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, put in place to prevent prospect hoarding. If a team adds that player to the 40 man roster, this removes them from eligibility. The draft is ranked by worst to first.

TEAM BREAKDOWN/WISHLIST ——————————————————————

CATCHER: Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heinemen, Phil Clarke & Brandon Valenzuela

We have our catcher. After batting close to .300 the entire season, Captain Kirk is a clear starting catcher option for the foreseeable future. After signing a 5 year extension last offseason, Kirk proved himself as a star catcher both offensively and defensively. The backup, Tyler Heinemen, proved to be a suitable backup to Kirk, and will continue to give Kirk an off day every now and then. Only playing in 64 games last season, Heinemen put up a .289 average and a 2 WAR season, meaning he provided 2 more wins than replacement level. Going in to his age 35 season, and with two catchers Rule 5 eligible, they might be added to the 40 man roster and be in a position to take his spot. Of the two, Phil Clarke played better last season and is older at 27.

Because Alejandro Kirk is established as a star catcher, there is no need to sign anyone in free agency. (I love you kirky)

SUMMARY: Keep Kirk, Heinemen might be aging out of a roster spot

FIRST BASE: Vlad Jr.

Like with catcher, Vladdy is here to stay. Signing a massive 500 million dollar deal last offseason that sets him as a Blue Jay for life, he is an established star that will play every day barring injury. Putting in a record performance in the offseason, he is the clear face of the Blue Jays going forward. The Blue Jays traded for Ty France at the 2025 trade deadline to allow Vladdy to DH some days as a half rest day, and I think the Jays might sign a cheap player to do the same. Currently the Jays don't have someone on the roster who can fill this role, so I believe free agency is the best option.

Cheap: Dominic Smith

Once thought of to be the future of the New York Mets in the late 2010s and 2020s, Dominic Smith hasn't had the career he was projected to have. Drafted in the first round of the 2013 draft and debuting in 2017, he has a career WAR of .3. Ironically, this last season was one of his best, putting up a .4 WAR and batting .284 in 63 games, while getting paid under 1 million. As a lefty bat with decent power, I think he can be a good bench option whenever they need someone at first for 2026. After making <1 million last season and putting in decent numbers in limited playing time, I think a 1 year contract for 1.5 million is a good cheap bench option.

Average: Justin Turner

With the breakout year for Cubs first baseman Michael Busch, Justin Turner's mutual option for 2026 will most likely be declined. A veteran infielder who played 1 year for the jays in 2024, Turner would be a decent bench player that could play 1st or 3rd in 2026. His mutual option is valued at 10 million, but as a 40 year old infielder who only bat .219 with 3 home runs, I think a 1 year, 8 million dollar contract would be a good option for an aging veteran with little offensive output.

Because Vladdy is the starting first baseman, there is no need to put in an expensive option.

SUMMARY: Vladdy is the starter Dominic Smith – 1yr, 1.5 million Justin Turner – 1 yr, 8 million

SECOND BASE: Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider

Last offseason Toronto traded Spencer Horwitz for Andres Gimenez, and took on his contract. Under contract until 2029 with a club option for 2030, Gimenez seems to be the clear choice for second base for the years to come. Only playing in 94 games in 2025, it is unsure what kind of player he will be through a full season. Known for his defense, he played to around a 5 WAR his last 3 full seasons, all with Cleveland. Signed by the Mets as a shortstop, he returned to his original position in the playoffs while Bo Bichette was injured. Ernie Clement is set to earn 3.5 million in arbitration for the 2026 season, seeing a big pay raise after his historical, record setting performance in the postseason this year. Playing 140 games in 2025, he has established himself as a good contact hitter that can play all around the infield. Playing alot of third, he could be set as the starting third baseman for the future. Davis Schneider seems comfortable in his super utility role, playing everywhere in the infield and outfield. When needed he can play 2nd base but has had more playing time in LF.

With Andres Gimenez set in his starting role, and with Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider further establishing themselves last season, the 2nd base position is well under control and there is no need to sign anyone in free agency.

SUMMARY: Gimenez is the starter Ernie Clement when needed Davis Schneider when needed

THIRD BASE: Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider

Perhaps a question mark to begin last season, the emergence of Ernie Clement and Addison Barger as every day players have seemingly solidified the 3rd base position. With George Springer getting banged up a few times during the season, Barger played many games in RF, allowing Ernie to pickup more games as the starting 3rd baseman, and I can see this being the setup for 2026 as well. With Springer potentially entering his final year as a Blue Jay, Barger may receive even more playing time in RF to set him up as the everyday guy for the future, but right now his primary position is still 3rd base. Schneider can also pick up some starts at 3rd as the super utility.

Ernie Clement played alot of third base last season, and established himself as a playoff performer setting the new hit record in a postseason. Because of this, he will most likely be the primary option for the Blue Jays, unless they want to sign a big name in free agency.

Expensive: Munetaka Murakami

At only 26 years old, Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami is set to make his way to the MLB for the 2026 season. Putting up a .286 average with 24 homers last season, and close to 300 homers in 9 seasons (he hit 56 in 2022 alone), Murakami is the next in a long line of Japanese stars moving to the MLB. After missing out on Ohtani and Sasaki, and with money to spend after a deep playoff run, Murakami could be an option to add more power to the Blue Jays lineup. Not including the “finders fee” MLB teams must pay to the NPB team that posts the player, Murakami is projected to get anywhere from 150-250 million from potential suitors. If the Blue Jays somehow cannot re sign Bo Bichette, Gimenez could move to shortstop, Ernie to 2nd, and slot in Murakami at third, occasionally DHing. Only 26, I think a 7 year, 200 million dollar contract adds a big power bat to an already strong offense, and with hitting coach David Popkins turning the Blue Jays into an offensive powerhouse in 2025, could work his magic on Murakami, turning him into the next big thing.

SUMMARY: Ernie Clement is the starter Munetaka Murakami – 7yr, 200 million if the Jays want to add a big star

SHORTSTOP: Bo Bichette? Andres Gimenez

Bo Bichette returned to form in 2025, batting at or above .300 for most of the season, leading the league in hits. Suffering an injury at the end of the regular season, he didn't come back until the World Series, putting in some highlight performances there as well. Currently a free agent, and presumably with a high asking price after this return to his star level, there is a future where Bo Bichette is not a Toronto Blue Jay. That being said, I think the best option is for the Blue Jays to pay the man what he has earned. If for some reason he does not re sign with the Blue Jays, Andres Gimenez has shown that he can shift over to shortstop and Ernie to second, opening up third base for a signing like Murakami.

Cheap: Andres Gimenez

Showing he can move to shortstop and put in solid defense, the Jays could use what they have and not re sign Bichette, lowering the offensive output significantly but the price tag as well. Gimenez played shortstop for the entire postseason, with Bichette moving to second base due to injury. There is also a scenario where they re sign Bichette but keep this setup, having Bo be the everyday 2nd baseman.

Expensive: Bo Bichette

Like Vladdy, Bo Bichette is a Blue Jay through and through. To picture an infield with only one of the two seems wrong, and Bichette has put in the numbers to warrant a hefty contract. At age 28, he will most likely be asking for his “final contract”, putting him as a Blue Jay for life. Because of this, I think a 7 year, 200 million dollar contract, same as Murakami, allows Blue Jay fans to exhale, knowing Vlad and Bo are Jays for life.

SUMMARY: Andres Gimenez shifts to shortstop Bo Bichette – 7yr 200 million

OUTFIELDERS: George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Anthony Santander, Addison Barger

Spending most of the season injured, Daulton Varsho allowed for players like Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger to receive regular playing time in the outfield, which benefited the team greatly. They further developed into starting players, and in Barger's case, a star. I think the outfield is set, and with Santander coming back and hopefully playing a full season, these 6 names are all that you need. Springer in LF, Varsho in CF, Barger in RF, with Santander at DH and Lukes and Loperfido coming off the bench, and George moving to DH for one of them to play LF if Santander continues his struggles at the plate.

SUMMARY: You have your outfield, love it. Cherish it.

DESIGNATED HITTER: The Jays signed fat stupid Santander who was injured the entire year and did nothing when he actually played. Hopefully he is healthy and productive, as that was the first of 5 year contract.

SUMMARY: Start praying

STARTING ROTATION: Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Eric Lauer, Jose Berrios

Trey Yesavage showed that he is the future ace of the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2025 playoffs, securing him an opening day roster spot. He did phenomenal against the best teams in the league, and is an easy #2 starter for the Blue Jays. Shane Bieber opted in to his 2026 player option, putting him in the starting rotation for a full season of work. Lefty Eric Lauer was great in whatever role you put him in, and put up good numbers in the postseason. The biggest question mark right now is Jose Berrios, who was relegated to the bullpen after poor performance and his first big injury in his career. Still starting in 30 games however, he is an established innings eater whose contract expires after 2028, but has a player option after 2026, but unless he pulls off an insane comeback season, he is most likely opting in. With the departure of Max Scherzer, there is an open spot in the rotation, allowing Eric Lauer to continue to be that dominant swing man out of the bullpen that can move back into the rotation if there are any injuries.

Cheap: Eric Lauer

The Blue Jays could use Eric Lauer as their sole lefty in the rotation, and he more than proved himself last season. He is set to earn 5.3 million in arbitration for the 2026 season, which is more than reasonable for a starting pitcher.

Average: Brandon Woodruff

Another righty, but after coming off from Tommy John and putting in limited work in 2025, Woodruff could be a solid Bieber-esque signing that provides a solid arm, albeit with a shaky injury history. He has only put in over 100 innings in 3 of his 8 seasons as a starting pitcher, but every season has been statistically good. He pitched 65 innings in 2025 to a 3.20 ERA (earned run average) and a <1 WHIP (walks+hits per innings pitched), and has always put in a positive WAR. He made just over 8 million in 2025, so I think a 2yr, 20 million dollar contract with a player option in the second year gives the Blue Jays another solid right hander in the rotation.

Expensive: Ranger Suarez

A mainstay of the Phillies rotation the last 6-7 years (don't say it), Ranger Suarez has proven himself to be a top lefty in the National League. Pitching at least 150 innings in 3 of the last 4 seasons, he is a solid lefty option for the Blue Jays rotation. He made 8 million in arbitration in 2025, but with Scott Boras being his agent, he will most likely be asking for 20mil/y. At 30 years old, I think a 5 year, 150 million dollar contract is still relatively cheap for a pitcher of his caliber and gives the Blue Jays a dominant lefty in their right heavy rotation.

SUMMARY: Eric Lauer – earning 5.3 million in arbitration Brandon Woodruff – 2yr, 20 million Ranger Suarez – 5yr, 150 million

BULLPEN: Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia (forgot he existed), Louie Varland, Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, Tommy Nance, Mason Fluharty, Yariel Rodriguez

Despite it's woes in the postseason, I do think the bullpen is in a good spot. Fluharty and Fisher proved themselves capable arms out of the bullpen, and with Yimi Garcia coming back from injury, this replaces the loss of Seranthony Dominguez. Jeff Hoffman was shaky in his first year as a full time closer, and ultimately would lose the World Series for the Blue Jays, giving up a homer to Miguel Rojas to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th, but I do think he will be dominant once again. That being said, there are a lot of intriguing free agents that can slot into the bullpen, taking the spot of a Yimi Garcia or Tommy Nance.

Cheap: Emilio Pagan

In his age 34 season, Emilio Pagan returned to his dominant numbers last seen in the 2023 season with the Twins, putting up a 2.88 ERA and racking up 32 saves with the Cincinnati Reds. Earning 8.2 million after opting in to his player option in 2025, he could be looking for a multiple year deal. I think a 2yr, 20 million dollar deal gives the Blue Jays a solid setup man for Hoffman.

Average: Devin Williams

After being traded from the Blue Jays to the Yankees in 2025, Devin Williams struggled mightily, putting up his worst numbers by far. Pitching to a 4.79 ERA in 62 innings, he was eventually removed from his closer role, despite previously being lights out in the years previous. I think his value is still relatively high, however, and after earning 8.6 million in arbitration in 2025, will be looking for a long term deal. I think a 4 year, 60 million dollar deal gives the Blue Jays another solid bullpen arm for the long term with a high ceiling, as I predict he returns to his dominant form in 2026.

Expensive: Edwin Diaz

After opting out of his contract this offseason, Edwin Diaz will most likely re sign with the Mets on a new deal, but if that not the case due to the Mets new GM being more frugal than previous ones, he could hit the open market. Opting out of the last 3 years of his 5 year, 102 million dollar contract signed in 2023, Diaz will most likely want a repeat of that contract after putting up solid numbers. 48 saves the last 2 season but shaky in 2024, I think his value will have dropped slightly. Still a top 5 closer in the league, I think a 5 year, 80 million dollar contract gives the Jays their dominant closer, pushing Hoffman back to his setup role where he previously flourished as part of the Phillies.

SUMMARY: Emilio Pagan – 2yr, 20 mil Devin Williams – 4yr, 60 mil Edwin Diaz – 5 year, 80 mil

As was the case last year, if even one of these happen I am once again the GOAT.

by Your friend and comrade